El Pinguino wrote:
atomeyes wrote:we already have enough Ontario breweries that have opened based on belief and not facts.
if you're patient enough, you'll see how accurate your belief was, since I expect lots of these breweries' cans to be collector items come 2018
I thought we'd start to see more dying off by now too....so it makes me think the market is still stronger than I imagined.
takes time for people to burn through their savings.
takes time for investors to want a return on investment.
taes time for a brewery to see that they won't reach their 1 year targets.
takes time for people to realize that places like Bandit are absolutely awful with awful beer and they should go anywhere else.
hearing stories about breweries not hitting their targets. a certain west end brewery apparently is actively trying to find contract breweries to fill in their dead fermentor space. they have not hit #s and they have lots of shiny, new equipment that needs to be paid for.
this year, you'll have Godspeed opening up in the summer. they'll be pushing out volume within 12 months. Cowbell in Blyth will be huge volume-wise. Junction's moving into their new space, as is Blood Brothers.
Left Field apparently has 1 or more large fermentors coming in and they already expanded this year.
GOose Island will have a brewpub open here.
the US breweries will really start to fight for market share. i expect to see Oskar BLues, Lagunitas, Stone, SE, Ballast Point on tap here within the year and to eat into local shares a la Goose Island.
go through a list of good pubs. the pie ain't as big as what one thinks.
we're gonna have a big-ass crash. the bigger guys may feel the hit first, since they're fighting for LCBO shelf space and city taps.
the small guys (i.e. Leslieville breweries that move their brewery into the basement during kitchen service) will realize that Toronto rents and brewing 5 times a week don't add up to a fun and profitable lifestyle.