atomeyes wrote:takes time for people to burn through their savings.
takes time for investors to want a return on investment.
taes time for a brewery to see that they won't reach their 1 year targets.
takes time for people to realize that places like Bandit are absolutely awful with awful beer and they should go anywhere else.
hearing stories about breweries not hitting their targets. a certain west end brewery apparently is actively trying to find contract breweries to fill in their dead fermentor space. they have not hit #s and they have lots of shiny, new equipment that needs to be paid for.
this year, you'll have Godspeed opening up in the summer. they'll be pushing out volume within 12 months. Cowbell in Blyth will be huge volume-wise. Junction's moving into their new space, as is Blood Brothers.
Left Field apparently has 1 or more large fermentors coming in and they already expanded this year.
GOose Island will have a brewpub open here.
the US breweries will really start to fight for market share. i expect to see Oskar BLues, Lagunitas, Stone, SE, Ballast Point on tap here within the year and to eat into local shares a la Goose Island.
go through a list of good pubs. the pie ain't as big as what one thinks.
we're gonna have a big-ass crash. the bigger guys may feel the hit first, since they're fighting for LCBO shelf space and city taps.
the small guys (i.e. Leslieville breweries that move their brewery into the basement during kitchen service) will realize that Toronto rents and brewing 5 times a week don't add up to a fun and profitable lifestyle.
Some interesting insights there. Surprised you think the other US guys will make a push into this market....seems US brewers rarely stick around. I miss the old Great Divide days....but perhaps with some of those guys you mention having done their own east coast expansions...they think it may be worth coming here.
I remember Wellington brewery saying they were running 3 shifts all the time....doing a ton of contract brewing...a year or two ago...to fund their own expansion plans too. Nickelbrook has obviously expanded as well.
Would you have the same doom scenario view if we had a freer market here, with private bottle shops, etc?